Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future remains uncertain after recent election results left his coalition without a parliamentary majority. The election concluded with Netanyahu’s bloc securing 53 seats, while the main opposition alliance garnered 48 seats in the 120-member Knesset. With 61 seats required to form a government, both sides now face complex coalition negotiations.
Arab-led parties have emerged as potential kingmakers, achieving their strongest showing to date with 19 seats. This development positions them as critical players in the formation of Israel’s next government. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot and his allies could potentially negotiate an anti-Netanyahu coalition with these Arab-led parties, which could secure a majority of up to 67 seats. However, such cooperation is expected to encounter strong resistance from right-wing politicians and voters.
The growing political influence of Arab citizens, who make up about 20% of Israel’s population, is attributed to strong voter turnout and opposition to Netanyahu’s far-right allies. Despite this, Netanyahu has criticized any opposition coalition relying on Arab parties, labeling it a threat to national security.
Another possible outcome is a national unity government that includes both Netanyahu and opposition politicians. However, Eisenkot and his allies have consistently rejected the idea of serving under Netanyahu, citing his handling of security issues, particularly following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and concerns over democratic institutions. Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial further complicates coalition talks.
Adding to the political tension are allegations of possible foreign interference in the election. Israel’s election authorities have called for an investigation by the Shin Bet security agency following claims of irregularities. Qatar has denied any involvement, and election officials have emphasized that these unverified claims should not undermine the legitimacy of Arab voters or the election results.
If coalition negotiations fail, Israel may face another election early next year, with Netanyahu’s government continuing in a caretaker capacity. The election results are expected to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog, who will then select a candidate to attempt to form the next government. The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, leaving Israel’s political future dependent on whether rival parties can bridge their differences to reach a coalition agreement.